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There are 22 counties in the US that managed to vote for the winning party in every single election from 1988 to 2016. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. Jeff Myers, a lifelong Vigo County resident in Riley, on the other hand, wont let the big events of the day, such as riots and the pandemic, determine his vote. The county, located along the Illinois border, has a mix of rural and urban demographics. It doesnt matter whether you are a Republican or a Democrat, youre going to get a crook. Its population is 60% white and 27% Black. Thats part of what has made it an effective bellwether, at least in recent decades, he said. Plastic cups and straws also have been hard to come by because they require natural gas in their manufacturing process. Our roads need to be fixed. I dont feel good about the leadership in our country right now.. Sam, who is a truck driver for Four City Technologies in Wellington but lives in Marblehead, said he drives about 400 miles a day to deliver bolts, nuts, and screws used in the auto industry. This includes personalizing content and advertising. The unhappiness and unsatisfactory conditions have spread similar to the way COVID-19 has, a truck driver by the name of Sam, who also was at Wee Willys, told The Epoch Times. He was an apprentice and then a journeyman in a local steamfitters union for about 10 years before he was laid off. Thus, as polarization rises, the potential for counties shifting their mean party preference across different elections declines. This year, the local courthouse in Ridgway has been bustling with new voter registrations and party affiliation changes. This claim is basically absurd. I think they [the current administration] are trying to push us into buying electric cars. Thats a highly Democratic area, but people see whats going on and theyre not happy, Sam said. Just two have populations in excess of 100,000, the authors said. Washington state's Clallam County was the outlier, backing Joe Biden in a state he won by more than 19 points. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. If I look back on my life, there is a swing toward the right, and then it swings back toward the left. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). Hes happy about the passage of the First Step Act, criminal justice reform that Trump signed into law in 2018, which includes decreased sentences for some drug crimes, and also makes it easier to get out of prison early for good behavior. President Trump won every single bellwether county, except Clallam County in Washington. Bellwethers arent a crystal balltheir streak was expected to end sooner or later. Elk Countys approximately 15,000 residents that go to the polls have voted for the eventual winner in all but three presidential elections since 1932in 1940, 1968, and 2012. I think all politicians are crooks. Miller cited seeing some retail and light industrial development around the county in recent yearsa Bass Pro Shops store in Bowling Green, a 1 million-square-foot expansion for First Solar in Perrysburg in 2018, and downtown revitalization in Bowling Green. He isnt happy that Biden called Trump names during the first debate. When gas went up that time, our sales went down to zero, Zulch said. On Sept. 14, a federal judge ruled Wolfs shutdown and restrictions on businesses unconstitutional, but the governor has since appealed. And yet, the belief in bellwether states or counties as predictors of US presidential elections is a phoenix that is constantly being reborn. The 19 bellwethers tend to be poorer, whiter, older, and less educated than the rest of the country, according to an August paper by researchers from the University of Denver and the University of New Hampshire. The counties tend to be clustered in the Midwest and the Northeast, with only four of the counties not falling into one of those regions, they said. Most of the jobs up here are part-time or seasonal. Our mission is to put on honest elections.. About The Author. bellwether counties epoch timesjury duty summons date vs reporting date Get Business Credit and Financing To Grow Your Business!!! Fifteen percent is a very large gap to close, he said. Right after we saw the results of the election and that Trump had lost, we were all like, what the hell?, said Tammy, a bartender at Wee Willys Sports Pub in Marblehead. Global Trade Policy Challenges: preparing for the next decade, Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 Unported. The All-Or-Nothing Bellwether: These are states or counties that choose the national winner every time. Medicare is becoming a joke. In Terre Haute, 52-year-old Scott Hamilton said the main issue for him in this election is how divided the nation is; he said Trump is mostly to blame. In particular, recent research which identified nineteen bellwether counties found that they "tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole." Miller doesnt hesitate to say that he isnt happy with the current state of affairs and he doesnt know who hell vote for in the next presidential election. He also drives more than 40 miles from Marblehead to Wellington to pick up his truck. A diverse group of residents, many were surprised to wake up the morning of Nov. 4, 2020, to see that Joe Biden overtook Trumps leads in numerous battleground states from the night beforesuch as in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Guests are invited to enjoy live music from The BanDura BanDuo, featuring Angelika and Justin Mehes, a brother-sister musical act, visit the Cheremosh Ukrainian Dance Ensemble's costume display featuring traditional Ukrainian folk dance costumes, and connect with the . Two states have announced recounts. Titchner, a Vietnam veteran, has been painting houses for 45 years and said he votes based on the candidate, rather than the party. But Hamilton thinks more changes are needed. Nothing is free, Hawker said. He predicts that many Trump voters will start to waver in the weeks leading up to the election and will end up not voting. Itll be interesting to see who wins Sen. A state is considered a "bellwether state" if it usually . Both Hidalgo and Valencia County, New Mexico, are close to 60 percent Hispanic. There is another bellwether list of 58 counties that has correctly picked each president since 2000; Trump won 51 of them by an average margin of nearly 15 points. We and the rest of the states boards of elections have been directed by the Ohio Secretary of States Office to hold the election on May 3. I vote for whoever I think is going to do the best job, Sam added. The majority of rural America are our hard-working, blue-collar workers. I believe in a time cycle. And its just so easy to snowball it to where chances are, if youre not very careful and work very hard in the other direction, you may just [continue a life of crime].. Its crazy. Jim Hoft is the founder and editor of The Gateway Pundit, one of the top conservative news outlets in America. In 2016, he definitely was the lesser of two evils, Zulch said. 'I Should Start Voting'. Im looking at both sides of it. We want to get people off of welfare, we need to get people back into working again, being self sustainable. Wood Countyaswith Ottawa County, its neighbor to the east along Lake Erieis filled with farm fields, is home to many military veterans (about 7,000 of them), and hasnt seen much expansion or change since the late 1970s or early 1980s. Thus, for some sequences of elections there are indeed, bellwether counties. He worked in HVAC repair with the local pipefitters union and also owns a small concession business, setting up at events. She also said that many people who come into the pub are outspoken about the current state of affairs in the United States, especially on Saturdays when the crowds are larger. The City Center festival continued with Kyiv City Ballet, a Christopher Wheeldon duet and a daring work for Dayton Contemporary Dance Company. In new research, Bernard Grofman and Haotian Chen argue that the evidence shows that this claim is laughable. I just think theres going to be a lot of problems if he doesnt become our president all the violence and the riots. Ron DeSantis, Miller said he likes Gov. Ottawa County in Ohio has been on target every four years since 1964, and Bexar County in Texas (San Antonio) has had only one miss since 1928 (preferring the Democrat Hubert Humphrey in 1968). Haotian Chen University of California, Irvine In 2020, all but one of the bellwethers picked President Donald Trump by a margin of some 16 points on average. This includes personalizing content and advertising. Also, spare a thought for Webster County in Georgia. We have to stand and fight for the constitution our forefathers created. Fitch said he finds the president to be arrogant and obnoxious at times, but I wasnt voting for a fishing buddy, I was looking for somebody to stir up Washington, D.C., Hes getting stuff done in an unconventional way, Fitch said. In an October 7, 2020, essay in the New York Times, David Wasserman looked to ten allegedly bellwether counties for evidence that Donald Trump is in serious trouble. Theyre scared. This year, Vigo went for Trump by nearly 15 points, roughly the same as in 2016. Shepherd said being able to bear arms is of particular importance now and she fears Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden would restrict that right. We live in an evenly divided nation, and the past five presidential elections demonstrate that well with their extremely close outcomes, Bergbower, an associate professor at Indiana State University, said in an email to The Epoch Times. The state as a whole is going more Republican, Wood County Board of Elections Director Julie Baumgardner told The Epoch Times. I have not seen any division like this [before]., I believe that is because of our current president, so my main issue is that he does not stay president.. He says hell vote for Trump. In economics, a 'bellwether' is a leading indicator of an economic trend. And to force somebody to do it, it just makes even less sense, because this country is supposed to be free.. In the northwest corner of Ohio sits a county with an enviable bellwether reputationonly twice over the past 60 years voting against the presidential winner. Two states have announced recounts. We can place an order and immediately get an email back of what they dont have. Bernard Grofman is Distinguished Professor of Political Science and Jack W. Peltason Chair of Democracy Studies at the University of California, Irvine. The median household annual income is approximately $20,000 less in the county than it is nationally. In 2020, Vigo went for Trump by nearly 15 points, roughly the same as in 2016. The researchers also mapped all U.S. counties (over 3,000) by their bellwether scoretheir record of voting for the overall winner in each of the previous 10 presidential electionsgiving progressively larger weight to more recent elections. Its gone, Jacobs said. Although longtime county residents say that Wood County is in pretty good shape overallas there has been some recent industrial development on its north sideit also has been affected by national issues such as inflation, the price of gasoline, supply chain issues, and workforce shortages. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Epoch Times: "Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020" Find UFOs, The Apocalypse, New World Order, Political Analysis, Alternative Health, Armageddon, Conspiracies, Prophecies, Spirituality, Home Schooling, Home Mortgages and more, in: Rumor Mill News Reading Room, Current Archive Michael Sakal is a former reporter for The Epoch Times. Wolf has allowed for the counting of ballots to continue for three days after Nov. 3, meaning its unlikely that a winner will be called in Pennsylvania for at least a week after the election. But its still anyones game when taking into account the 1.2 million unaffiliated or other-party voters and the roughly 70 percent voter turnout. Under a changed political landscape in Ottawa County, Commissioner Mark Coppeler, a Republican, also looked at the bigger picture. Results from 28 counties have still not been finalized, per Brookings Institution. At 6:30 pm we kick off an evening that showcases and celebrates Ukrainian arts and culture. Westmoreland is the only one of the counties in the South, Clallam is the only one on the West Coast, and Hidalgo and Valencia are the only counties in the Mountain West. Bellwethers arent a crystal balltheir streak was expected to end sooner or later. With the price of gas going up, Zulch is afraid of a return to high fuel prices caused by Hurricane Katrina in Louisiana 16 years ago and that soaring costs will again hurt his business. He was concerned about the situation in Ukraine. Tom Wolf overstepped his boundaries during the pandemic. He told The Epoch Times that hes facing workforce shortages and currently only has 18 cookshalf of what he normally would have. Edie Martin is struggling to get her diner back in the black after being closed for almost three months over the pandemic. He doesnt seem like a really bad guy. After the 46-state landslide, James Farley, Roosevelts campaign manager, revised the theory: As goes Maine, so goes Vermont.. This includes personalizing content and advertising. As Figure 1 shows, with roughly 3600 counties, the number of counties which correctly predict the elections outcome can be non-trivial even for relatively long sequence of elections when the probability of a correct prediction is exactly 50 percent, i.e., a coin flip. From 1980 to 2012, for instance, these bellwether counties consistently voted within a few points of the national popular vote. Washington County, Maine - one miss since 1972 (in 1976), perfect since 1980. It bisects six counties Hillsborough, Polk, Osceola, Orange, Seminole and Volusia but is far bigger than the . They caused this, they brought it on because they dont like him, Fannin said. The northern portion of the county, in towns such as Rossford and Northwood, is the blue-collar and working-class crowd and Perrysburg is home to upscale housing developments. Farming also is a big part of Wood County's make up in northwest Ohio. This includes personalizing content and advertising. This includes personalizing content and advertising. He considers Trump pro-life. We just couldnt believe that Trump had lost.. But what would be striking is for it to end so radically. The strongest bellwether counties are those that back the winning candidate in all elections. Theres too much mishandling, she said. Its just stupid, she said. Michael Sakal is a former reporter for The Epoch Times. Comparing the most recent elections (2000-2020) to those in earlier periods (1960-1980), we find a striking decline in the proportion of bellwether counties, i.e., those with correct prediction in past elections. Ive got opinions, but I just dont voice them, I keep to myself, he said, adding that its better for business. If it is not demographically representative counties or politically competitive counties which are the bellwethers, why then do we find bellwethers? Of the 19 bellwether counties that have consistently voted for the presidential winner since 1980, all but one chose Trump, the Journal found, PJ Media reported. Natural gas is a key ingredient in the process used to make the nitrogen-based fertilizer used on crops such as corn and wheat. Since he became a Christian in the mid-1990s, he said hes used his moral compass to determine his vote. We need to be safe, and I dont think we are right now.. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. Its home to four universities, filled with many Democratic-leaning students. In politics, a "bellwether" refers to a geographic area whose political beliefs and voting preferences reflect that of a wider area. I dont think he has done that bad of a job. We know that President Donald Trump won 18 of the 19 historic bellwether counties those that have regularly predicted the outcome of presidential contests. In both of the missteps, the residents wrongly picked the losing Democrat: Williams Jennings Bryan over President William Taft in 1908 and Adlai Stevenson over President Dwight Eisenhower in 1952. His message to Trump is: Shut up and quit twittering. Overall, the county is in good shape, and has a lot going for it.. Pre-performance Lobby events. Jacobs said she absolutely intends to vote in person on Nov. 3. By Cara Ding. But theyre happy with that and theyre proud of what they created. It was easy. He thinks the current criminal justice system imprisons too many people. Hes pleased with the last twoBrett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrettby Trump. It is as if the devastating rebuttals by Tufte in Data Analysis for Politics and Policy or the equally devastating review of the evidence in David A. Hopkins 2017 book Red Fighting Blue never happened. And this years election is unlike any other, in which mail-in voting has become the norm, injecting an air of uncertainty into a year already full of upheaval. Fitch, who grew up in foster homes and went on to put himself through college, has owned and run the Summit Fireside Lodge and Grill for 32 years. Once the two 2016 presidential candidates were locked in, she knew she couldnt vote for Clinton, while Trumps promise to drain the swamp piqued her interest. A 75-year-old retiree who owned a transportation and logistics business didnt want to be named and told The Epoch Times hes been skeptical of government since he was 30. Fannin plans to vote in person and is pretty sure Trump will win a second term, but hes concerned about the integrity of the mail-in ballots. Bobby Tisdell stands in front of his home in West Terre Haute, Vigo County, Ind., on Oct. 20, 2020. But hes pleased with how Trump has run the country and is eager to reelect him. What happened to our Democratic Party? State residents are awaiting a ruling from the Ohio Supreme Court about whether it will approve the newly proposed congressional map that the Ohio Redistricting Commission submitted to the high court earlier this month. Vance. Theyve been dubbed bellwether counties and until this year, no president since at least Ronald Reagan has missed even one. Fourth, it lists whether they won Florida, Ohio and Iowa . But according to the. Until we have term limits for politicians, this country doesnt have a prayer.. Finally, numerical bellwether scores for all 3142 counties in the US were computed based upon the number of . Those who believe that Donald Trump won the 2020 presidential election have held up his victories in many bellwether counties as evidence of electoral fraud. Theres too much corruption. She registered as a Democrat about 40 years ago and has never bothered to change her affiliation, although she voted for Trump in 2016 and plans to do the same this year. The Epoch Times spoke with some voters in Terre Haute and surrounding towns on Oct. 20 to get a glimpse of the bellwether mood ahead of the presidential election. Whats happening is affecting everybody, he said. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. The county is more white than the rest of the nationabout 87 percent, compared to 76 percent nationally, according to census data. An Emerson poll conducted shortly before Election Day was completely off, showing Trump and Biden neck and neck. Why are you trying so hard to get this one guy out of office? he said of the disproven Russian collusion accusations and the presidents impeachment. I think Trump was the better president, said Beggs, who worked for the city for 45 years. The Democrats who are vying for that partys nomination are Morgan Harper, Traci Johnson, and Tim Ryan, who has been serving in Congress for the past 2o years, or 10 consecutive terms. Though Myers leans toward Trump, he hasnt made up his mind to vote for him yet; he didnt vote for Trump in 2016. He said he finds it hard to believe Bidens claim that he never talked to his son Hunter Biden about his deals in Ukraine and China. For example, if we call a county a bellwether if it has one less correct match than the number of elections in a sequence, we will get nearly 19 bellwethers even in a set of eleven elections, and in a set of seven elections, we will see 197 bellwethers far more than the 27 we would find under our assumptions when we require a bellwether to have an unblemished record of predictive success. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. The way he spoke to President Trump bothers me even more, because hes speaking to my president. He received his bachelors degree in mechanical engineering from the University of Toledo and a Masters degree in electrical engineering from Northwestern in Illinois. They need to take care of the older people here. Epoch Times Canada (@EpochTimesCan) November 16, 2020. For much of the last decade, historically Republican suburban areas in Franklin, Ohio,. Sawyer County, Wisconsin, and Clallam County, Washington, have substantial Native American populations, the authors said. There is nothing we can do about it; the power is out of our hands.. And then you have the Biden folks that are like, This is just nutty,' he said. One older woman with a Biden sign outside her home simply said, Im voting for Biden, and thats all Ive got to say.. Articles after the 2020 election examining the predictive power of previous bellwethers are found in other sources, including the Wall Street Journal and the Epoch Times. People need to get a job, get out and work. Robert Ellithorpe, an 84-year-old great grandfather, and Navy aviation veteran said he believed the 2020 presidential election was legitimate and Biden received 80 million votes. It swung from Barack Obama in 2012 to Donald Trump in 2016, and political science professor Matthew Bergbower says its something akin to a purple county.. As the 2022 mid-term elections near (May 3 in Ohio), one might think that the Republican and Democratic headquarters might be open and in full swing, but at both party offices the week of Feb. 21, the lights were out and no one was occupying the desks inside or answering the phones. With respect to the notion that bellwethers are demographically representative, this appears not to true. As part of The Epoch Times Association, Inc., a nonprofit organization we stand outside of political interests and the pursuit of profit, to educate readers about today's most critical issues . Election bellwether counties in the United States are counties that vote in alignment with the country as a whole in United States presidential elections, so that the county votes for the candidate who ultimately wins the election. Sam said he has noticed that the farmers arent happy, and their kids have to take a side job in the factory because of the economic situation. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Its been a long time since we were fully staffed with 35 cooks. Logistically, its a disaster. A number of fertilizer plants closed across the country last year due to natural gas shortages. I dont think my vote counts, he told The Epoch Times. As for the pandemic, he doesnt think Trump has done a bad job on that. Jim was awarded the Reed Irvine Accuracy in . Theyve been dubbed bellwether counties and until this year, no president since at least Ronald Reagan has missed even one. Your email address will not be published.
